Methods and Modelling. On November 30th Andrius Vainilavičius will present the topic „Consumer inflation expectations and their accuracy in the Baltics“ in TechHub Conference Room.
Consumer inflation expectations are readily available in the consumer survey data. This paper focuses on two areas: application of Carlson-Parkin (CP) method in quantifying qualitative consumer responses for the Baltic countries and measures the predictive power of the consumer inflation expectations. CP method’s assumption about consumer response distribution is tested. I find that alternative distributions might improve the accuracy of consumer expectations, but the accuracy gains are marginal. The results indicate that quantified consumer inflation expectations are not forward-looking in the case of Lithuania and while Estonian consumers display forward-lookingness, the predictive power of their expectations is limited.
Information on the seminar
- Time: November 30, 16:00-17:00
- Venue: 402 room and MS Teams here
- Presenter: PhD student Andrius Vainilavičius, Junior Assistant Professor of the Department of Quantitative Methods and Modelling.
- Topic: „Consumer inflation expectations and their accuracy in the Baltics“.
- Working language: English
The seminar is open to all - students, teachers, researchers. We invite you to learn more!